Baking Baku: The economic impact of climate change on Eastern Europe
As COP29 host, Azerbaijan stands at the heart of this year’s climate summit – and, according to a new Christian Aid report, it is also the Eastern European country most at risk of economic harm from climate change.
Key findings
Based on the latest scientific models, Baking Baku: The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Eastern Europe reveals that:
- Azerbaijan’s GDP could shrink by 12.6% by 2070 if the world continues along the current climate pledge path (NDCs), leading to an estimated 2.8°C of global heating by century’s end.
- Even limiting temperature rises to 2°C would still result in a 6% GDP hit for Azerbaijan in 2050 and 2070.
As a major oil producer, Azerbaijan plays a dual role, bearing the brunt of climate impacts while contributing significantly to global emissions. Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s COP29 president, has an urgent responsibility to lead the call for ambitious climate finance and emission reduction outcomes.
Regional challenges
Eastern Europe faces rising temperatures, droughts, river flooding, and increased forest fires, endangering agriculture, tourism, human health, and stability. Addressing these risks is critical, and COP29 offers Azerbaijan a unique chance to push for strong action to protect both its own future and that of its neighbours
This report shows that the climate crisis is going to have a hugely damaging impact on our region, "We’re already seeing the toll at just 1.1°C of global heating. If we allow temperatures to rise to 2°C or beyond, the economic consequences will be serious...This is why Azerbaijan, as COP29 host, must drive a strong outcome on climate finance and a rapid transition from fossil fuels to clean renewables.